Global trends and the Covid situation in China would drive the equity markets this week, which may also see volatility amid the scheduled derivatives expiry on Thursday, said analysts. According to analysts, investor sentiment remained subdued last week amid surging Covid cases in China and a few other nations. Also, stronger US growth data has cemented expectations of the Federal Reserve continuing with its hawkish stance, which added to the muted trend.
The retail inflation, which is factored in by the RBI to arrive at its monetary policy, has been on decline since last month. The previous low was 5.54 per cent in November 2019. The government has asked the RBI to restrict the inflation around 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on the either side.
Inflation data, both at domestic and global level, interest rate scenario in the US, geopolitical situation and general elections in 2024 are some of the major factors that would influence trading in the equity market this financial year, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity and global trends will also dictate terms in the equity market going ahead. Equity markets across the globe faced major challenges in FY23 due to concerns over high inflation, which resulted in increase in interest rates around the world, lowering investor sentiment, experts added.
The Nifty Bank index has come off 15 per cent from its peak in February, underperforming the benchmark Nifty which is down 6%.
From the pandemic shocks to state polls to global trends, a raft of sentiment drivers are expected to steer the Indian stock market in 2022 after a historic year of massive investor returns and milestones. The Union Budget, which will be closely watched for further reform moves, and quarterly earnings of corporates will be among the developments on investors' radar amid global central banks moving towards tighter interest regime in the wake of inflationary pressures. The year 2021 was rewarding in a big way for equity investors.
Firms have to adhere to strict compliance requirements mandated by global parents
Crisil Research expects retail inflation to rise 60 basis points to 4 per cent this fiscal from 3.4 per cent in 2018-19.
Byju's is set to promote its chief operating officer (COO) Mrinal Mohit to a bigger role, including leading the India operations, according to people familiar with the matter. This is because Byju Raveendran, founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of the edtech giant - which is valued at $22 billion - is planning to focus on global expansion and acquisitions. Among the global regions, Raveendran may look at markets such as the US and the Middle East.
India's first-ever listed new-age company, Zomato, has seen a meteoric rise in its stock price in calendar year 2023 (CY23), rising 70.75 per cent during this period as compared to 9.5 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. From being the second worst hit new-age stock in CY22, crashing 57 per cent on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the stock hit the Rs 100-mark for the first time since January 2022 in late August. The stellar run in the stock - only after PB Fintech and One97 Communications-owned Paytm, analysts say, may be coming to an end, at least for now.
Apple's online launch is a symbol of success for FDI in single-brand retail, though there's no indication of how much the Silicon Valley major would invest in the country.
The Nifty IT index rose by 5.14 per cent on Friday (January 12), marking its best performance in a day since July 2020, followed by another 1.9 per cent rally on Monday. With this, the index, which tracks the share prices of India's 10 biggest information technology (IT) services companies, has increased 7.1 per cent in the past two sessions. However, the substantial rally in the index occurred at a time when India's four largest IT companies reported their worst quarterly performance in over five years.
Leading stock exchange BSE has decided to discontinue Stop Loss Market (SL-M) orders from October 9 to prevent erroneous order placement arising out of manual or algo trades. This came after a recent freak trade incident caused a lot of angst among the trading community earlier this month due to an SL-M order. SL-M is a type of order that automatically sells or buys a security at the market price when the trigger price is reached.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms jumped to an all-time high of Rs 304.53 lakh crore on Wednesday, buoyed by an unprecedented rally in equities where the BSE benchmark Sensex ended over the 67,000-mark for the first time ever. Rallying for the fifth day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 302.30 points, or 0.45 per cent, to end at its lifetime closing high of 67,097.44 points. During the day, it jumped 376.24 points, or 0.56 per cent, to reach its all-time intra-day peak of 67,171.38 points.
Oil to telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries (RIL) has initiated the process to seek shareholders' approval for the appointment of the third generation of the Ambani family on the company's board. The remote voting through postal ballot will start from September 27 onwards. In a separate note, CreditSights said a trust and hold-co model could be a possibility for the anticipated succession at RIL.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
Banks, the biggest component of the Indian equity market, are now trading at a big discount to the benchmark indicesThe BSE Bankex index, which tracks the share price of the 10 top listed banks, is trading at a trailing price to earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.3X, nearly a 40 per cent discount to the BSE Sensex current P/E of 24.37X. This is the biggest valuation gap between the two indices in at least 10 years. Similarly, the BSE Bankex price to book ratio (P/B) of 2.22X is 40 per cent lower than the current Sensex P/B ratio of 3.61X.
Making a stellar debut, shares of FSN E-Commerce Ventures, which runs the online marketplace for beauty and wellness products Nykaa, closed with a huge premium of over 96 per cent against the issue price of Rs 1,125 on Wednesday. The stock debuted at Rs 2,001 apiece, reflecting a jump of 77.86 per cent on the BSE. Then, the scrip zoomed 99.83 per cent to Rs 2,248.10 during the day before closing at Rs 2,206.70.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data and global trends will dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will also influence markets, they added. "The Indian market will be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6-8, 2023. Aside from that, market participants will be keeping an eye on the progress of monsoon," said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
More and more women are making their presence felt in jobs related to sciences, technology, and engineering across organisations.
'Just the amount of work which is there just to become more and more successful in banking. For this to happen you need to have leaders who understand technology.'
Investors' wealth eroded by Rs 3.46 lakh crore on Wednesday as equity markets took a sharp tumble amid weak global trends and foreign fund outflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex fell by 676.53 points or 1.02 per cent to settle at 65,782.78. During the day, it plunged 1,027.63 points or 1.54 per cent to 65,431.68. In line with the weak trend in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms eroded by Rs 3,46,947.54 crore to Rs 3,03,33,258.69 crore.
Small stocks of Dalal Street grappled with turbulent times in 2022 as high volatility and higher interest rate regime sapped investors' appetite for these scrips but the horizon ahead seems less cloudy for the New Year. While the 30-share Sensex scaled multiple record peaks with bluechips glittering, small stocks underperformed and the BSE smallcap index declined more than 3 per cent this year. In comparison, the BSE Sensex climbed 2,673.61 points or 4.58 per cent till December 27.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year. Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019. This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.
With a loan book of $268 billion, India's retail banking is now ahead of Russia, Malaysia and Mexico but behind China, Brazil and Thailand
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
India's industrial production grew by 1 per cent in December, official data showed on Friday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, the manufacturing sector output grew by 1.6 per cent in December 2020.
Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
Investors became richer by over Rs 2.27 lakh crore on Monday as equities rebounded, with the BSE Sensex rallying over 1 per cent amid continuous foreign fund inflows and upbeat global markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 709.96 points or 1.16 per cent to settle at 61,764.25. During the day, it zoomed 799.9 points or 1.31 per cent to 61,854.19. Following the rally, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms jumped by Rs 2,27,794.46 crore to Rs 2,76,06,443.06 crore.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
Investor wealth slumped by a whopping Rs 5.3 lakh crore on Friday as the benchmark BSE Sensex crashed more than 1,900 points to post its biggest single-day fall in nearly ten months. At the close of trade, the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies eroded by Rs 5,37,375.94 crore to Rs 2,00,81,095.73 crore. The total market capitalisation of these companies stood at Rs 2,06,18,471.67 crore on February 25.
The K-shaped economic recovery in India from the pandemic slowdown shows in corporate results as well. The automobile sector, which represents big-ticket consumption, continues to do well and has increased its share in corporate revenues and profits while fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies that sell low-ticket consumer goods are struggling with poor sales and earnings growth. The share of the automobile sector, including makers of auto ancillaries, in corporate net sales rose to a 10-quarter high of 10.05 per cent during July-September 2023 (Q2FY24) from 8.94 per cent a year earlier and 9.75 per cent in Q1FY24.
The Reserve Bank's rate setting panel on Thursday met to finalise a report for the government on why it failed to keep retail inflation below the target of 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters since January this year, said sources. The report will be presented to the government as per the Reserve Bank of India Act, they added. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Wall Street-correlated stock markets are facing the risk of correction, as Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, conveys to investors in his latest edition of GREED & fear. Rising crude oil prices, which are nearing $100 a barrel (Brent), pose a threat to the global central bank's battle against inflation and have led to a re-evaluation of its exposure to Indian stocks. "The potential for more US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, combined with the risk that monetary tightening finally bites as regards the economy, remains a risk for Wall Street-correlated world stock markets. "There is also the oil factor. This is why GREED & fear continues to believe the pain trade is down. "Areas in Asia, such as Indian midcaps, which have already done very well, are at obvious risk of some profit-taking," writes Wood.
Currently, the retail inflation is well below the RBI's comfort level. The government has asked the central bank to keep inflation in the range of 4 per cent.
The study conducted for the government, following allegations that big retail was squeezing neigbourhood retailers out of business, showed that the latter's turnover and profit dropped 8 to 9 per cent initially, but the adverse impact weakened over five years. Significantly, the report states that a total of 151 small shops have closed down over a period of 21 months, which is about 4.2 per cent of annual closure of retailers.
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